The 11th Coin Toss

The 11th Coin Toss

Nick December 14, 2020

One epiphany I had several years ago was finally understanding that if a coin toss comes up “heads” 10 times in a row, the 11th toss still has only a 50% chance of landing with the “tails” side facing up.

While there is a 100% chance that tails will eventually come up, the individual event is not connected to a previous or future one.

I wish I had applied that knowledge with dating when I was younger. If I got rejected by one lady, I was certain that the result would be the same for all ladies. This coin flip example can be applied to other areas of life as well. You can have 10 great meals at a restaurant and then have an awful experience on your 11th visit. Your annual July 4th BBQ can have great weather for many consecutive years but eventually, the weather will intervene. There is no way to change the odds on a coin flip, having a bad dining experience, or encountering rain, but with dating, you can change the odds in your favor. For example, cosmetic surgery and amassing a fortune will certainly help guys attract the ladies. One area where it is essential to change the odds is with your HVAC system. Ignore it and there is a 100% chance that it will eventually break down. Keeping it well maintained with the services of a professional HVAC technician will lower those odds significantly. Another way to avoid the expensive 11th coin toss equivalent of your HVAC system is to purchase an extended warranty. In gambling, this is known as hedging a bet. With HVAC it is called having peace of mind.

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